Navigating Uncertainty

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The World Uncertainty Index is a measure that tracks uncertainty across the globe by analysing the reports published by the Economist Intelligence Unit. In the last nine months the Index has increased by over 260%, highlighting that uncertainty currently is a very real issue.

At this showcase, Bruce Garvey and Adam Svendsen will present and discuss the findings of their recently published book, Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence, and describe different methods for analysing a range of business concerns. They will evaluate the use of Generative AI tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini to support these methods and discuss how the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.

Bruce Garvey provides specialist support for organisations faced with high levels of uncertainty and complexity. His methods are generic to all organisational types, deployable in areas where uncertainty and complexity abide and has developed proprietary decision support software to help structure complex problems which has been licenced to organisations such as NATO and Anglian Water. He has over 45 years’ experience within the major corporate and SME-sectors, has published books and papers, presented at conferences and run workshop based courses on his specialist area.

Adam Svendsen is an Associate Professor at the Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC/FHS) and an established international intelligence & defence strategist, educator (Oslo, Salamanca, and Georgetown), researcher, analyst, adviser and consultant. He is multi-sector experienced to a senior level, over the years his research and educator work has been pursued across Europe, Scandinavia, North America and Canada. He has authored several publications, including numerous articles, chapters, policy & strategy briefs, and five books - including: Intelligence Engineering: Operating Beyond the Conventional (New York: Rowman & Littlefield) 2017.